The Horse Nerd Number
One number for every horse on the card — a quick read on who fits today's race best.
What it is
The Horse Nerd Number takes the dozens of things a handicapper weighs before a race and boils them down to a single rating for each horse. Instead of flipping through pages of past performances, you can see at a glance which horses stand out and where the race is wide open.
What goes into it
We don't share the recipe — that's what keeps it ours — but here are the kinds of things the Number considers:
Speed
How fast a horse has run, adjusted for track and conditions.
Pace
Where a horse is likely to be early, and how the race should set up.
Class
The level of competition a horse has faced and beaten.
Form
Recent races and morning workouts — is the horse sharp right now?
Fit for today
Distance, surface, and how the horse handles Oaklawn.
Connections
The trainer and jockey, and how they do in spots like this.
How to read it
- Higher is better. The top Number in a race is our strongest fit for that race.
- Compare within the race. The Number ranks horses against each other in the same field, not across different races.
- Watch the gaps. A big gap between the top horse and the rest means a standout. Numbers bunched together mean a contentious race — often where value lives.
- Check the odds. A high Number at a big price can be worth a look. A high Number at a short price may already be "priced in."
The Number is a handicapping tool, not a guarantee. Racing is unpredictable, and every race carries risk.
Get the Number for every horse
The Horse Nerd Number appears on the Purple Sheet for every horse on the Oaklawn card.
The Horse Nerd is not a gambling website and does not accept wagers. All content is handicapping analysis and opinion for entertainment purposes only. Results are not guaranteed. Must be 21+. Gamble responsibly — if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).